The world has a massive food crisis on its hands. The crisis is so big that organizations like the World Bank and the United Nations say there won’t be enough food to feed the global population when it jumps from the current seven billion people to nine billion by 2050.
全球正面臨著一場(chǎng)大規(guī)模的糧食危機(jī)，世界銀行和聯(lián)合國(guó)等國(guó)際組織甚至聲稱，隨著全球人口由當(dāng)前的70億人增長(zhǎng)至2050年的90億人，地球上的糧食將難以滿足全球人口的需求。
Some research even suggests a food scarcity crunch as early as 2030 – just 15 years from now.
有些研究甚至認(rèn)為，全球糧食危機(jī)可能最早2030年就會(huì)爆發(fā)，也就是說(shuō)離現(xiàn)在只有15年。
The reasons? Severe weather events like droughts and floods, economic hardships, and political unrest in underdeveloped countries, as well as agribusiness expansion.
造成糧食危機(jī)的原因，主要是干旱和洪水等極端氣候環(huán)境、經(jīng)濟(jì)困難、欠發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的政治動(dòng)亂以及農(nóng)業(yè)綜合企業(yè)的擴(kuò)張等等。
While many experts say that producing more food will make the crisis go away, others contend it’s not that simple.
有許多專家認(rèn)為，只要生產(chǎn)更多的食物，就能解決糧食危機(jī)問(wèn)題，但同時(shí)也有一些專家認(rèn)為，問(wèn)題并非這么簡(jiǎn)單。
“To address food security, we need a shift in the way we address poverty and inequality in the world,” Stephen Scanlan, a professor of sociology at Ohio University. “There should be a reframing of food as a fundamental human right in a way that governments actually stand by.”
俄亥俄大學(xué)社會(huì)學(xué)教授史蒂芬•斯坎蘭指出：“要解決食品安全問(wèn)題，我們需要轉(zhuǎn)變我們解決全球貧困和貧富差距問(wèn)題的方式。食物應(yīng)該被確定為一項(xiàng)基本人權(quán)，得到各國(guó)政府的真正支持。”
But feeding the world is big business. Multinational food companies and retailers are heavily involved in food production. Corporations such as Kraft KRFT 0.21% , ConAgra CAG 0.77% , Cargill, and PepsiCo PEP 0.08% dominate global food distribution.
但喂飽全世界也是一筆大生意。不少跨國(guó)食品公司和零售企業(yè)都在積極從事食物生產(chǎn)。像卡夫、康尼格拉）、嘉吉和百事可樂(lè)）等公司，已經(jīng)成為全球糧食分配的主宰者。
Companies like Monsanto MON 1.28% , the biggest maker of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) seeds, promote their high tech products as a way to increase food production.
像全球最大的轉(zhuǎn)基因種子生產(chǎn)商孟山都這樣的公司，則主要通過(guò)推銷其高科技產(chǎn)品來(lái)提高糧食產(chǎn)量。
And those companies are seeing benefits. Global food prices increased by four percent between January and April of this year, according to the World Bank, stopping a decline in food prices starting in August 2012.
這些公司都見(jiàn)到了效益。根據(jù)世界銀行的數(shù)據(jù)，從今年一月到四月，全球食品價(jià)格增長(zhǎng)了4%，結(jié)束了肇始于2012年8月的下跌趨勢(shì)。
While those figures may please company shareholders, that kind of consolidation and profit puts too much control over food supplies into too few places, according to critics like Scanlan. Beyond the perceived threats from the business world, global food supplies, one analyst argued, are at the mercy of some nations seeking to feed their own populations at the expense of others.
不過(guò)斯坎蘭等批評(píng)人士指出，雖然這些數(shù)據(jù)或許能夠取悅企業(yè)的股東，但它也會(huì)導(dǎo)致少數(shù)幾個(gè)地方掌握過(guò)大的食品控制權(quán)。一名分析師還表示，除了來(lái)自企業(yè)界的威脅以外，全球食品安全還取決于，某些國(guó)家是否會(huì)以犧牲他國(guó)的人口食品安全為代價(jià)來(lái)喂飽本國(guó)國(guó)民。
“China is the largest purchaser of farmable land in the world,” said Usha Haley, a professor of business management at West Virginia University. “They’re doing it to acquire resources as they have a huge gap between what they produce and what they use.”
比如，西弗吉尼亞大學(xué)工商管理學(xué)教授烏沙•哈利指出：“中國(guó)是全球可耕種土地的最大買(mǎi)家，他們這樣做是為了獲得資源。因?yàn)樵谒麄兊漠a(chǎn)出和消耗之間存在著巨大的差距。”
Food scarcity now
糧荒已然發(fā)生
For many, food scarcity is already here. The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reports that 842 million people in the world remain undernourished. And nearly two thirds of them are living in the Asia-Pacific region. One in four children under the age of five is stunted due to malnutrition.
在很多人看來(lái)，糧荒已經(jīng)發(fā)生了。聯(lián)合國(guó)糧農(nóng)組織的報(bào)告稱，全球有8.42億人口營(yíng)養(yǎng)不良，幾乎其中的三分之二都集中在亞太地區(qū)。在五歲以下兒童中，有四分之一因營(yíng)養(yǎng)不夠而發(fā)育不良。
Fueling the problem are worldwide diets that rely on an ever smaller group of crops, leaving global food supplies at the mercy of inflation, insects, disease, and bad weather. Also, there’s the increasing creation of inedible products — such as fuel — from crops that normally get put on the kitchen table.
雪上加霜的是，目前全球人口依賴的農(nóng)作物種類越來(lái)越少，使全球糧食產(chǎn)量越來(lái)越多地受到通貨膨脹、蟲(chóng)災(zāi)、疫病和極端天氣的影響，另外，現(xiàn)在人們經(jīng)常使用糧食制造一些不能吃的產(chǎn)品（如能源），這也使它們無(wú)法被送上餐桌。
“What concerns us is biofuel expansion,” said Kristin Sundell, director of policy and campaigns for ActionAid, an international group that focuses on ending poverty.
致力于解決貧困問(wèn)題的國(guó)際組織“行動(dòng)援助”的政策與活動(dòng)主任克里斯汀•桑德?tīng)柋硎荆?ldquo;我們很擔(dān)心生物燃料的擴(kuò)張。”
“We’ve seen a 50 percent expansion in recent years in using crops like sugar, corn and soy to create fuels for gas tanks, and that’s taking away food crops from people and making what there is more expensive,” Sundell said.
他表示：“近年來(lái)，糖、玉米和大豆等糧食作物被用來(lái)提煉汽油的數(shù)量，已經(jīng)擴(kuò)張了50%，這一方面從人們那里搶走了農(nóng)作物，一方面也使糧食變得更貴了。”
Sundell added that the large-scale investment by private agriculture businesses to buy up more farm land in poor countries is forcing local growers out of business. Farmers who do have land in areas like East Africa often face a Faustian bargain, said Scott Ickes, a professor of public health and nutrition at the College of William & Mary.
桑德?tīng)栄a(bǔ)充道，一些私人農(nóng)業(yè)公司在窮國(guó)大規(guī)模投資購(gòu)買(mǎi)土地，迫使當(dāng)?shù)胤N植者無(wú)法再以農(nóng)為生。威廉與瑪麗學(xué)院公共健康與營(yíng)養(yǎng)教授斯科特•伊克斯指出，東非等地的一些擁有土地的農(nóng)民經(jīng)常面臨這種“浮士德式的交易”。
“Farmers have to choose between growing specialty cash crops like cocoa, tea and coffee — or food staples to make a living,” Ickes said. “They usually pick the cash crops as it’s a challenge for them to make ends meet.”
“農(nóng)民必須選擇是種植可可、茶和咖啡等專門(mén)的經(jīng)濟(jì)作物，還是選擇種植養(yǎng)家糊口的主食作物。由于生活艱難，他們經(jīng)常會(huì)選擇種植經(jīng)濟(jì)作物。”伊克斯說(shuō)。
Helping those help themselves
助人即自助
While agricultural innovations like genetic modified organisms (GMOs) — hailed by many and condemned by others – are often offered up as solutions, one analyst said simple ways to distribute and store food are needed.
盡管有人認(rèn)為，全球糧食危機(jī)的解決方案在于轉(zhuǎn)基因技術(shù)等農(nóng)業(yè)創(chuàng)新（雖然轉(zhuǎn)基因也受到了很多非議與指責(zé)），但也有一名分析人士表示，我們還需要一些簡(jiǎn)單的分配和儲(chǔ)存糧食的方法。
“A lot of food rots because of bad storage facilities in poor countries, and bad infrastructure in those areas prevents delivery of food to a lot of the poor,” said College of William & Mary’s Ickes.
威廉與瑪麗學(xué)院的伊克斯表示：“許多糧食之所以腐爛，是因?yàn)橐恍└F國(guó)的儲(chǔ)存設(shè)備不好。在這些國(guó)家，糟糕的基建設(shè)施，導(dǎo)致糧食不能分配到很多窮人手里。”
A key element in all this is helping those in need learn how to take care of themselves, said Mark Rieger, dean of the College of Agriculture and Natural Resources at the University of Delaware.
特拉華大學(xué)農(nóng)業(yè)與自然資源學(xué)院院長(zhǎng)馬克•里格爾認(rèn)為，解決這個(gè)問(wèn)題的重要一環(huán)在于教會(huì)那些需要幫助的國(guó)家如何進(jìn)行自助。
“We have an agricultural program so people can develop their own food,” Rieger said. “I just got back from Kenya where we bring students here and then send them back home to help their own countries.”
“我們有一個(gè)農(nóng)業(yè)項(xiàng)目，讓人們可以種植自己的糧食。我剛剛從肯尼亞回來(lái)，而且還帶回來(lái)了一些肯尼亞學(xué)生，等他們學(xué)成后，我們會(huì)讓他們回國(guó)幫助他們自己的國(guó)家。”
Wars over food?
搶奪糧食的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)？
The World Bank reports that to avoid food shortages by 2050, the global community needs to produce at least 50 percent more food than it does today.
世界銀行的報(bào)告指出，要想避免2050年出現(xiàn)糧食短缺，全球社會(huì)需要把糧食產(chǎn)量在今天的基礎(chǔ)上至少提高50%。
Many analysts say they are hopeful the world is waking up to the food scarcity problem, as more governments like the U.S. and those in Europe, ramp up efforts to provide aid to developing countries.
許多分析人士認(rèn)為，全球已經(jīng)開(kāi)識(shí)意識(shí)到糧荒問(wèn)題，比如美國(guó)和歐洲各國(guó)政府都加大了對(duì)發(fā)展中國(guó)家的援助力度。
But a clear consensus on exactly how to end the growing food shortage remains elusive. And that could lead to even greater disasters, said West Virginia’s Haley.
但西弗吉尼亞大學(xué)的哈利表示，目前國(guó)際社會(huì)對(duì)如何解決日益顯著的糧食緊缺仍缺乏共識(shí)。而這甚至可能導(dǎo)致更大的災(zāi)難。
“The food scarcity problem is serious. I think the next world wars could be fought over resources like food and water,” she said.
她表示：“糧食短缺問(wèn)題非常嚴(yán)重，我認(rèn)為對(duì)糧食和水等資源的爭(zhēng)奪，有可能引爆下一場(chǎng)世界大戰(zhàn)。”